EUR, GBP and Gold on a Rise, Eyes on Upcoming FOMC Speeches

EUR/USD climbs to 1.0776 amidst anticipation for pivotal FOMC member speeches.

USD dollar banknotes | Shutterstock

• EUR/USD Movement: Gained 0.16% to 1.0776, driven by robust service sector data from major Eurozone economies.
• USD/JPY and Commodities Update: Climbed 0.67% to 154.00, buoyed by pre-talk U.S. dollar strength; crude oil and natural gas prices also rose.
• GBP/USD and AUD/USD Trends: GBP/USD up 0.20% to 1.2569 during UK bank holiday; AUD/USD slightly up ahead of key Australian policy announcements.

Currency Movements Overview

In the forex trading today, we've seen some interesting movements across major currency pairs. The EUR/USD pair experienced a modest increase of 0.16%, trading at 1.0776, buoyed by positive service sector data from key Eurozone economies. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair saw a notable rise of 0.67%, reaching 154.00, as investors favored the dollar amidst upcoming U.S. economic talks. The GBP/USD also advanced by 0.20% to 1.2569, a remarkable move considering the UK was observing a bank holiday, which typically limits local market movement. 

On the other hand, the USD/CAD pair witnessed a slight decline of 0.19% to 1.3658, reflecting stronger oil prices which traditionally support the Canadian dollar. Lastly, the AUD/USD pair experienced a slight uptick of 0.18%, landing at 0.6620, ahead of significant monetary policy announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia. 

These movements underline the dynamic nature of the forex market, influenced by a variety of economic indicators and geopolitical events.

Commodities and Cryptocurrency:

• Crude Oil (WTI) and Brent Oil recorded gains, increasing by 0.52% and 0.49% respectively, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns.
• Natural Gas jumped 4.06%, reflecting heightened demand projections.
• Gold and Silver surged, with gold up by 0.92% at $2,329.80 per ounce and silver by 3.02% at $27.497 per ounce, as investors seek safe havens amid market uncertainties.
• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) faced a decline, down 1.36% at $63,391.0, amidst volatile trading conditions.
  
  

Economic Releases Recap:

• Australian and New Zealand markets reported mixed data with Australia’s ANZ Job Advertisements showing a notable increase of 2.8% and New Zealand's ANZ Commodity Prices m/m up by 0.5%.
• Chinese Caixin Services PMI held steady at 52.5, indicating sustained growth in the service sector.
• Eurozone's job and service sectors showed positive signs; Spanish Unemployment decreased significantly by 60.5K and Services PMIs across Spain, Italy, France, and Germany indicated healthy expansion.
• The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved slightly to -3.6, suggesting better investor sentiment.
  
  

Events Ahead Today:

• 9:50 PM: FOMC Member Barkin is scheduled to speak, potentially providing insights into future U.S. monetary policy directions.
• 10:00 PM: FOMC Member Williams will also address the public, further guiding market expectations.
• Tentatively: The Federal Reserve's Loan Officer Survey will be released, offering valuable data on banking and financial conditions.
  
  

Upcoming Tuesday Morning:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%. Key statements and a press conference will follow, which could impact the AUD significantly depending on the tone and content of the discussions.

Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook 

Gold’s pivot point, a critical technical marker, is positioned at $2318, suggesting a balance point between buyers and sellers. This level serves as a baseline for determining short-term market sentiment and potential price movement directions.

Above this pivot, gold faces a tiered resistance landscape. The immediate resistance is established at $2349, followed by subsequent ceilings at $2370 and $2393. These thresholds represent potential selling points or reversal zones in bullish scenarios. 

Conversely, support levels below the pivot give a safety net at $2314.54, with deeper cushions at $2312.60 and $2295.00, indicating where buying interest might intensify following pullbacks.

• Current Price: Trading at approximately $2324, with a slight upward movement.
• Pivot and Resistance Levels: Immediate buy above $2318; resistances at $2349, $2370, and $2393.
• Support Zones: Initial support at $2314.54, with stronger levels at $2312.60 and $2295.

Gold Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Given the current price dynamics and technical indicators—RSI at 58.37 signaling neither overbought nor oversold conditions, and the EMA (9-day) at $2312.60 hinting at underlying support—it appears advantageous for traders to consider buying above the pivot point of $2318. Setting a take profit at $2350 capitalizes on resistance encounters, while a stop loss at $2295 mitigates downside risks.

Trading Signal:

• Entry Price: Buy Above $2318
• Take Profit: $2350
• Stop Loss: $2295

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook 

EUR/USD shows positive momentum, exceeding the $1.0743 pivot point. This pivot point acts as a fulcrum for potential price movements, with the currency pair currently trading at $1.07781.

Looking upward, the first resistance is located at $1.08011, followed by more significant levels at $1.08495 and $1.09019. These markers will serve as key targets for traders looking for bullish continuation signals. Conversely, immediate support below the pivot point stands at $1.07099, with further safety nets at $1.06764 and $1.06692 should the pair retract.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55.40, suggesting moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.07264 provides additional support, reinforcing the upward trend. Based on these indicators, a strategic entry point would be just above the pivot at $1.0743, with a target of $1.08421 and a stop loss set at $1.0680 to manage risk effectively.

Trading Signal:

• Entry Price: Buy Above 1.0743
• Take Profit: 1.08421
• Stop Loss: 1.0680

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook 

GBP/USD is currently in a cautiously bullish trend within an ascending channel in the latest 4-hour chart. Its pivot point is at $1.25387, which is a crucial gauge for traders to determine potential bullish or bearish reversals.

Looking upwards, the immediate resistance is located at $1.26351. A breach of this level could propel the pair towards the next resistance levels at $1.26945 and $1.27490, signaling continued bullish momentum. Conversely, the first level of support lies slightly below the pivot at $1.24567, with further support at $1.24175 and $1.24238, providing potential areas where the price could stabilize if a pullback occurs.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58.03, suggesting that the pair is neither overbought nor oversold, supporting the current upward trend. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) closely aligns with the pivot at $1.25634, further confirming the importance of the pivot level as a key support zone.

Conclusion: Traders might consider entering a long position above $1.25387 with a target of $1.26351 and setting a stop loss at $1.24567 to manage risk effectively in this dynamic market scenario.

Trading Signal:

• Entry Price: Buy Above 1.25387
• Take Profit: 1.26351
• Stop Loss: 1.24567
  
  

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