The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under significant pressure, hitting its weakest level against the US Dollar since May 1990, following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its monetary policy settings unchanged, keeping interest rates at 0%-0.1%.
Japanese Yen and Euro banknote | Shutterstock
In a notable shift, the Bank of Japan has ended its commitment to purchasing approximately 6 trillion JPY worth of government bonds each month. This development coincided with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's acknowledgment of the possibility of prolonged JPY weakness, though he noted that exchange rate fluctuations could have positive economic impacts.
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading above 156.70, reflecting a more than 1.25% increase for the day. This movement in the forex market comes as traders anticipate the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for March, a critical inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve.
In the U.S., economic data has shown mixed signals:
- The GDP for Q1 2024 grew at a slower pace of 1.6%, significantly below the expected 2.5%, which has impacted the USD Index (DXY). The index experienced fluctuations early Friday, remaining above 105.50 after closing in negative territory the previous day.
- The 10-year Treasury yield has stabilized near 4.7% after a substantial increase of over 1% on Thursday, reflecting the market's reaction to a higher-than-anticipated GDP price deflator.
Currency markets have also been active:
- The EUR/USD pair reached its highest daily close in over two weeks, now consolidating just below 1.0750.
- The GBP/USD continued its upward trend for a third consecutive day, stabilizing around 1.2500.
Meanwhile, gold prices edged higher, with XAU/USD maintaining its position above $2,340 despite facing headwinds from rising U.S. yields.
Key Economic Figures:
- Advance GDP Price Index: Recorded at 3.1%, indicating stronger inflationary pressures than the expected 3.0%.
- Pending Home Sales m/m: Showed a significant increase of 3.4%, highlighting a positive turn in the real estate market.
This overview provides traders with the necessary information to navigate the complexities of the current economic landscape, emphasizing significant currency movements and economic data releases.
Upcoming economic events include:
- 12:30 (USD): Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Income m/m, and Personal Spending m/m data.
- 14:00 (USD): Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations figures.
Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Today, gold stands at $2347.89, a rise of 0.63%. This pricing is on a 4-hour chart and is centered on several critical price points. The pivot is at $2394, with the first level of resistance at $2398. Additional resistance levels are identified at $2433 and $2473. On the support side, the initial level is at $2290, with further levels at $2249 and $2205.
Gold Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently $2340.81. Gold’s movement above this average, combined with a specific bullish candlestick pattern, points to potential gains starting from $2338.
For those looking to invest, buying above $2337 could be strategic. Setting a profit target at $2394 and a stop loss at $2302 would align with the asset's current technical outlook and help manage investment risks efficiently.
Trading Signal:
- Entry Price: Buy Above 2337
- Take Profit: 2394
- Stop Loss: 2302
Start Trading Gold (XAU/USD) Today
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The USD/CAD pair is trading slightly lower at $1.36527, down by 0.03%. The chart, observed on a daily timeframe, reveals crucial levels to monitor. The pivot point stands at $1.3609, with significant resistance levels at $1.3845, $1.3975, and $1.4085. Support is initially found at $1.3497, with further cushions at $1.3365 and $1.3215.
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.3606, closely aligning with today's pivot point, suggesting a key area for potential price support. Observations indicate that the USD/CAD has recently retreated from a high of $1.3844, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. However, there's potential for stabilization and a bullish reversal if it sustains above the $1.3608 level.
Investors might consider entering trades above $1.36083, targeting $1.37973 for profits, while setting stop losses at $1.34645 to protect against further declines.
Trading Signal:
- Entry Price: Buy Above 1.36083
- Take Profit: 1.37973
- Stop Loss: 1.34645
Start Trading USD/CAD Today
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The GBP/USD pair is trading marginally higher today at $1.25165, reflecting a modest gain of 0.03%. The analysis on a daily chart reveals essential levels to watch. The current pivot point is set at $1.28591. Resistance levels are strategically placed at $1.26988, $1.27948, and $1.29720, marking potential upward targets.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.24114, with subsequent levels at $1.22923 and $1.21907.
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is noted at $1.25791, slightly above today's trading price, suggesting a potential resistance zone.
Given the close proximity of the current price to the support level and EMA, entering trades above $1.2422 appears favorable. Traders could aim for profits at $1.2697, using $1.2270 as a stop-loss threshold to minimize risk.
Trading Signal:
- Entry Price: Buy Above 1.2422
- Take Profit: 1.2697
- Stop Loss: 1.2270
Start Trading GBP/USD Today
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